SMM December 4 report:
In the morning session, SHFE aluminum 12 contract fluctuated upward. In east China, market transactions were more sluggish, with absolute prices breaking through 22,000 yuan/mt. Downstream purchase willingness became more cautious, and buyers quoted at premiums of -30 to -20 yuan/mt against the SMM average price. However, sellers were reluctant to sell at a large discount, and actual transaction prices hovered around -10 yuan/mt against the SMM average price. Today, the east China market's willingness to sell index was 2.74, down 0.08 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.65, down 0.04 MoM. SMM A00 aluminum closed at 22,020 yuan/mt, up 220 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at a discount of 60 yuan/mt against the 12 contract, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
With high aluminum prices, the central China market saw a cooling in transactions. Downstream enterprises mainly restocked based on rigid demand, leading to a decline in purchasing sentiment, with deliveries primarily under long-term contracts. The actual market transaction prices weakened continuously since before the opening, ranging from -20 yuan/mt to +10 yuan/mt against the central China price. Today, the central China market's willingness to sell index was 2.97, up 0.01 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.82, down 0.03 MoM. SMM central China closed at 21,890 yuan/mt, up 210 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at a discount of 190 yuan/mt against the 12 contract, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price spread between Henan and Shanghai was -130 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
In terms of inventory, the total national aluminum ingot inventory on Thursday was 596,000 mt, unchanged from Monday. As the off-season deepened, the casting ingot rate increased, and demand marginally weakened. With absolute prices rising, downstream purchase willingness decreased. Coupled with the active year-end sales for cash recovery by holders, spot premiums and discounts were expected to be under pressure in the short term.
